Sunday, January 10, 2010

December 2009 jobs data

Pundits are making a fuss about the fact that official December job losses increased from November's unbelievable numbers. Monthly job losses still show a longer-term gradual decline. (Source.)

Perhaps looking at ADP's private job loss numbers does a better job of putting the trend in perspective:

The official unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10.0% in December:

The year-over-year percent change in aggregate weekly hours worked shows an upward trend, although it's still below zero:

The year-over-year percent change in initial unemployment claims is below zero and continuing to improve:

So, while the widely-reported official data didn't look so good in December, other data shows the recovery is continuing.

A reminder for conspiracy theorists: The ADP data (i.e. the second graph) does not come from the government.

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