Wednesday, November 7, 2012

2012 presidential election predictions vs actual results and the FiveThirtyEight blog both made highly accurate election predictions long before any votes were cast. They did it simply by looking at the results of state-by-state polls instead of national polls.

The graphic below shows the predictions a full month before any presidential debates occurred, compared with the state-by-state election results known as of early morning on the day after election day.