Tuesday, December 2, 2008

The United States is now officially in a recession

I'm sure you've all heard this by now: The United States is officially in a recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research—a private, nonprofit research organization—said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles decided that the US recession began last December.

The news pushed US stocks lower and renewed calls for another economic stimulus program.

The current recession, which many economists expect to persist through the middle of next year, is already the third-longest since the Great Depression, behind only the 16-month slumps of the mid-1970s and early 1980s.

"I think that we've got a ways to go, that this is going to be probably a deep and long recession," Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard University economist who sits on the NBER's committee, told CNBC. "It could be the worst post-War recession. We don't know yet." ...

Many Wall Street financial institutions already had declared that the US recession began in December 2007, when there was a sharp increase in the US unemployment rate.

The last two recessions have been so short—about eight months—that the NBER's official prenouncement came after the downturn had actually ended. ...

What's been confusing for economists this time around is that a contraction in gross domestic product—what laymen consider a key recession indicator—did not happen until the third quarter of this year.

Other key barometers, such as payrolls and the jobless rate, have clearly been in a recessionary trend for most, if not all, of the year, economists say. ...

A senior adviser to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said news that the United States has been in a recession for a year underscored the need for an economic stimulus package.

Lawrence Summers, tapped by Obama to become director of the White House National Economic Council, said the slump may be worsening.
Based on the currently available numbers, it does not (yet) look like this recession is deeper than the early 1980s recession, but it will almost certainly be longer—possibly much longer. What should the government do in response to this extended recession? See here.

To my readers: I hope you will do your patriotic duty and buy your family lots of presents this holiday season—And buy a few gifts for yourself too. This doesn't mean you just go out and buy a bunch of junk. Instead, think of things you would likely buy at some point in the future, and simply move the purchases forward in time. Your nation's economy is depending on you.

Ignoring the housing bubble—What a great idea you guys had, Messrs. Greenspan and Bernanke!


  1. You really need to update your housing bubble graphs. They appear to include data only up through CY08-Q1, which can be misleading given the current market where they are now quite dated.

  2. I know, I know. I meant to do it this past weekend, but I got lazy.

  3. do grocery store gift certificates count?