![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7URbX95k7QyxpffLWEHuudLIAaEKRE1E5YMwNXbf4CQKcRLRWutkK5NFb_QP-CGhpARNq6hS5J3sVg6KfzhG-5q_d7ni_W7KhN1f5392cAe8P-ISaEnsZP1zlbhKBVISjviZGuwpISaI/s400/july09-bls-payrolls.png)
The unemployment rate is no longer spiking. It may drift upward at a slower pace if we have a jobless recovery, but the end of a sharp upward spike has historically been a sure sign of the end of a recession.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJB2OD68L1Ab9IQ3vIq9XormhfjEOzXbL9eiJ2LNWeQHU2ypvwn5zfBSZoAyGGE9hOCXetkfP0grzkwsSuaaHznaekYdlglXg37uUUhrdpPBT4__mcH-oIzbc0rME3XmEqserobZueCrU/s400/july09-unemployment.png)
Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims peaked about a month ago. This graph shows the year-over-year percentage change for emphasis.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhknAbUQWAouHMBX33X_Apr29UgWxsc56zKo-yzmW95Y7js25hhMnRv5h04ZQQenn6gnT6rVAInkS6wf6b_KG_UrZCLLsyw3AIt2kmoreAWQzw24ryspqOvRITQvh1fWFh4W6LOqEH6330/s400/july09-ic4wsa.png)
Finally, the bulk of the economic stimulus package is yet to be spent. That's a lot of money that will be dumped into the economy over the next year or two.
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