
The unemployment rate is no longer spiking. It may drift upward at a slower pace if we have a jobless recovery, but the end of a sharp upward spike has historically been a sure sign of the end of a recession.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims peaked about a month ago. This graph shows the year-over-year percentage change for emphasis.

Finally, the bulk of the economic stimulus package is yet to be spent. That's a lot of money that will be dumped into the economy over the next year or two.
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