The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. Other reports showed claims for jobless benefits held at a 10-month low and Philadelphia-area manufacturing accelerated.
The rally in stock prices, low short-term interest rates and slowing job losses that propelled the leading index signal consumer confidence and spending are likely to stabilize, limiting the risk the economy will retrench. The data supported Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s forecast today that the emerging expansion will be sustained into 2010.
“It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”
Thursday, November 19, 2009
U.S. economy in sustained, gradual recovery
Don't believe the impatient fear mongers. A slow, but steady, recovery is in process. From Bloomberg: