Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Home prices continue seasonal rise; down 4.1% year-over-year

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Index is down 4.1% from a year ago, but up 0.9% month-over-month. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the index was flat month-over-month:
Home prices in July climbed for the fourth month in a row, but are still down from a year ago.

According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities, prices rose 0.9% in July compared with June, but they're still 4.1% lower than 12 months ago.

"We are far from a sustained recovery" said S&P spokesman David Blitzer. "Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year . . . must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery,"

Indeed, adjusted for seasonal differences, the 20-city index was flat month-over-month.

Some cities have shown surprising strength recently. In Detroit, prices jumped 3.8% month-over-month, after spiking 5.8% in June. Minneapolis prices increased 2.6% and Washington recorded a 2.4% rise.

Weakness continued in Las Vegas, which was down 0.2% month-over-month and in Phoenix, which edged 0.1% lower.
Since the bounce is entirely seasonal, I expect falling prices in the fall.

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